2008 National Heads-Up Poker Championship

ALL IN spotlights 10 players to watch at the 2008 National Heads-Up Poker Championship.

REMEMBER THAT GOD-AWFUL THEME SONG to the inaugural National Heads-Up Poker Championship in 2005? The chorus began “That was a crazy game of poker” (which also happens to be the name of the song), and it stuck in your head as painfully as any song since “Mambo # 5.” The tune was irritating, the lyrics were embarrassing, and as an opener to every show, it had poker fans across the country wearing out the fast-forward buttons on their TiVo remotes.

But damn if the refrain wasn’t appropriate for last year’s Heads-Up Championship.
The 2007 version of the NHUPC was nothing if not a crazy three days of poker. The eventual champion, Paul Wasicka, didn’t even know he was in the tournament until 24 hours before it began. Actress Shannon Elizabeth went all the way to the semifinals and was within one card of reaching the finals. Of the eight players who reached the quarterfinals, six were playing in the NHUPC for the first time and neither of the other two had ever gotten past the second round. Oh, and Don Cheadle beat Phil Ivey.

Simply put, the ’07 NHUPC was full of surprises, and it proved that making predictions about a wild event like this is a dangerous road to go down.

But there are nevertheless certain attributes that make a player a favorite to do well in a heads-up tournament like this, and there are certain elements to the structure that benefit some competitors while limiting others.

Looking at the field of 64, we’ve selected 10 players (listed alphabetically) whom we consider favorites to go all the way, 10 poker pros with the best shot at creating a racket in the brackets. And not only are we identifying them and explaining why they made our elite list of 10, but we’re also speculating as to their “realistic odds of winning.” Note that these aren’t actual betting odds; those will always be lower because the bookmakers like to make money. But these are realistic odds (with 30-1 being the best we could give anyone in a field where the average player is 63-1).

If the tournament plays out with any level of predictability, then these are the 10 players to watch. However, if it turns out to be another “crazy game of poker,” then, well, there are 64 players worth keeping an eye on.

CAESARS PALACE LIVE SCHEDULE
Feb. 29 First Round
March 1 Second & Third Rounds
March 2 Quarterfinals, Semifinals & Finals

NBC BROADCAST SCHEDULE
(all times Eastern)
Episode 1 April 13, 12 p.m.-2 p.m.
Episode 2 April 20, 12 p.m.-1 p.m.
Episode 3 April 27, 12 p.m.-2 p.m.
Episode 4 May 4, 12 p.m.-2 p.m.
Episode 5 May 11, 12 p.m.-2 p.m.
Episode 6 May 18, 12 p.m.-3 p.m.

Annie Duke
The first two years of the NHUPC were not kind to the ladies. No women advanced past the round of 16, and Duke didn’t advance past the first round either year. But in ’07, the ladies turned a corner, with two females reaching the quarterfinals (Kristy Gazes and Shannon Elizabeth) and one (Elizabeth) going a step farther, to the semifinals. And Duke began to turn that corner as well, defeating Jeff Shulman in the first round before falling to eventual quarterfinalist Nam Le in round two.

The bottom line is, the stage is set for a woman to do well this year, maybe even to win the whole thing, and Duke has just the right style, in that she’s never too aggressive, never too passive, and rarely makes huge mistakes. If she can get a little help from the deck here and there, she’ll be extremely difficult to defeat.
Realistic Odds Of Winning: 45-1

Bill Edler
2007 was a dream year for Las Vegas-based pro Edler, as he won his first WSOP bracelet and his first WPT title, pocketed more than $2.75-million, and came within one vote of being named Player of the Year by ALL IN. And significantly, he defeated Barry Greenstein in the finals of a 64-player, $10,000 buy-in heads-up tournament at the Crystal Casino in Compton, California, in February.

Edler has never been invited to the NHUPC before, but that win at the Crystal Casino illustrates that his game is suited to this format. And a win over Greenstein, who has reached at least the third round of the NHUPC every year, speaks volumes. Just because you’ve never seen Edler play on TV before doesn’t mean he isn’t among the elite, and he’ll have his chance to prove it for a national TV audience when the cards hit the felt at Caesars.
Realistic Odds Of Winning: 40-1

Sam Farha
There are some who say that the hyper-aggressive Farha plays too many hands, and when he exits a tournament early, that’s often the reason for his downfall. Fortunately for poker’s ultimate sharp-dressed man, in a heads-up match there’s no such thing as playing too many hands. Farha’s highly active, unpredictable style is perfect for the NHUPC, and his run to the quarterfinals in ’06, which ended in a wild, 31/2-hour shootout with eventual champion Ted Forrest, is testament to what he can do in this setting.

Farha is a master of poker psychology, and his game is rooted in the notion that he can put his opponents on a hand but they can’t begin to guess what he’s holding. In heads-up play, that’s an enormous advantage. Whenever they start a National Heads-Up Omaha Championship, Farha will be the odds-on favorite. Until then, in a No-Limit Hold ’Em event like this, he still has to be somewhere in the top 10.
Realistic Odds Of Winning: 40-1

Chris Ferguson
How could we not include a man who’s reached the finals twice in the three-year history of the NHUPC and who boasts an all-time record of 10-3 in the event? Despite an upset first-round loss last year to Scott Fischman (himself a first-rate heads-up competitor), Ferguson is a force in this tournament—and in poker in general, as he owns five World Series bracelets and last year became the only man to claim three WSOP Circuit rings.

The key to Ferguson’s success is his consistency, in terms of his demeanor, his movements, his timing, and his bets. Nobody is impossible to read, but “Jesus” comes damned close. They say poker is a game of “incomplete information.” Nobody gives out information less complete than Ferguson does.
Realistic Odds Of Winning: 35-1

Phil Hellmuth
Everybody has an opinion about Hellmuth. But there’s one opinion we should all agree on: The man is a hell of a Hold ’Em player.

Eleven bracelets don’t lie. That’s more WSOP titles than anyone’s ever won, and every last one of them came in Hold ’Em. And of course, he won the first NHUPC back in 2005, marking himself as a player to watch in this event every year. He had to skip the event last year due to a scheduling conflict, and that rates to make him extra hungry to go deep, as Hellmuth is nothing if not determined to prove himself over and over.

“The Poker Brat” isn’t afraid to make tough laydowns (as you may have heard, he can dodge bullets, baby), and conceding the small pots so that he can win the big pots is key to the formula that has made him a millionaire many times over. He loves to set traps, and if enough opponents walk into them, he’ll be adding a half-million bucks to his bank account at the NHUPC.
Realistic Odds Of Winning: 35-1

Phil Ivey
You might think it odd that we’d include a player with an 0-3 lifetime record in the NHUPC among our 10 to watch. And we’d agree that it’s odd … if it was any player other than Ivey.

Ivey is generally recognized as the all-around best player in the game today, and though his focus in these events is sometimes questionable—he’d often rather be in a juicy cash game or honing his backswing—you have to figure that “0-3” number bothers him and he’ll show up determined this year. It seems Ivey just needs to get over the hump and win his first-round match, and he’ll instantly become the most dangerous man in the field.

Against Chad Brown in ’06, he had the cards to blame. Against Don Cheadle last year, he had himself to blame. This year, there’s no blame game, no excuses. Ivey needs a win. And that makes him a doubly scary opponent for anyone.
Realistic Odds Of Winning: 40-1

Daniel Negreanu
Somewhat like Ivey, Negreanu is one of those guys who has to be given a shot at winning every poker tournament he enters. When “Kid Poker” is on his game and the cards are being cooperative, he’s a tough out for anyone. And unlike Ivey, he seems to take every tournament seriously. When he’s playing in the NHUPC, there’s no place he’d rather be. He always pushes himself to do a little extra homework, game plan one step beyond, and find a way to move on to the next round.

Negreanu has one quarterfinal NHUPC appearance and an overall winning record of 4-3. Those are good stats, but not good enough for Negreanu. And a first-round exit last year at the hands of friendly rival Mike Matusow only served to stoke his fire.

Every year, Negreanu takes the time at the end of the “pairings party” to fill out his entire bracket with predictions. Perhaps this is the year he’d be wise to write his own name down six times.
Realistic Odds Of Winning: 35-1

Gavin Smith
There are a lot of reasons to get behind mouthy Canadian Smith in the NHUPC. His lifetime record of 4-2 includes an impressive run to the semifinals last year that saw him count Johnny Chan and Andy Bloch among his victims. He plays the river as well as anyone in poker, both in terms of making tough laydowns and making genius bluffs when he senses weakness. And in a recent Poker After Dark showdown, he found himself heads-up and at a chip deficit against Phil Ivey and rallied to win. And he did so completely drunk.

Yes, the luck of the cards had a lot to do with it. Especially when the booze led Smith to a few questionable decisions and the deck bailed him out. But hey, a win over Ivey is a win over Ivey. Sober or sloshed, Smith is a serious threat to win the NHUPC. And if he’s in the middle of a match and finds himself in a hole playing sober, then hey, send a few pints his way.
Realistic Odds Of Winning: 35-1

Kenny Tran
Before last year’s World Series of Poker, most poker fans had never heard of Tran, an L.A. cash game mainstay without much of a national reputation. Then he went and finished fifth in the $50K H.O.R.S.E. tournament and 16th in the Main Event, along the way uttering for the benefit of the ESPN audience some Hellmuthian self-glorifying exclamations. And a new love-him-or-hate-him TV poker star was born.

Tran makes some reckless plays. He makes some jaw-dropping calls. He won’t be run over, and he’ll gladly run you over if you let him. He definitely fits that category of “guys nobody wants in the same part of the bracket as them,” as his pressure and unpredictability can be overwhelming. He’s an X-factor. This will be his first time participating in the NHUPC. But if he makes the impression we expect him to make, it won’t be his last.
Realistic Odds Of Winning: 45-1

Paul Wasicka
If there was a number-one seed at this year’s Heads-Up Championship, it would have to be Wasicka. Not only is he the defending champ, having gone 7-0 in last year’s tournament (including a 2-0 sweep of Chad Brown in the finals), but he made it to the sixth round of the $5,000 heads-up event at the WSOP, extending his winning streak to 12 straight major heads-up matches before he finally lost. You can talk all you want about the role luck plays in poker. But nobody’s lucky enough to win 12 heads-up matches in a row without being scary-good.

Wasicka has just the right temperament, just the right card sense, and in part because he’s financially set for life (more than $7.5-million in tournaments in the last two years), he plays without fear.

Wasicka’s quiet. He’s laid back. He doesn’t have a gimmick. In other words, he isn’t a TV programmer’s dream. But that doesn’t change the fact that he’s the man to beat at the ’08 NHUPC.
Realistic Odds Of Winning: 30-1